Ghana’s national currency, the cedi, is forecast to depreciate by 7.20 per cent against the US dollar by the end of 2026, according to the latest 2026 Economic Outlook released by Databank Research.
The research firm projects that the cedi will trade around GH¢12.85 to one US dollar by year-end, assuming current macroeconomic conditions hold and no major external shocks occur. This projected depreciation comes after a period of relative stability for the local currency, which had performed strongly in 2025 in part due to robust gold prices and improved economic indicators.
Drivers of Cedi Performance
Databank’s outlook highlights several domestic and global factors shaping the currency’s trajectory:
* Import demand and external obligations — Continued demand from bulk importers and scheduled payments on Eurobonds are expected to exert pressure on foreign exchange markets.
* Gold-based inflows and mining reforms — The forecast assumes steady gold-backed inflows averaging around GH¢750 million monthly through the Ghana Gold Board, which is expected to provide the Bank of Ghana with foreign reserves to smooth volatility.
* Global monetary sentiment — Databank notes a gradual shift among some central banks toward reducing reliance on the US dollar, though significant structural change is deemed a low-probability factor in the short term.
The research firm maintained that, excluding the aforementioned low-likelihood scenarios, the forecast reflects a neutral to moderately positive outlook for the cedi, underpinned by tighter foreign exchange regulations and what it describes as “resilient reserve buffers”.
Broader Economic Context
The projection comes amid a broader turnaround in Ghana’s macroeconomic landscape. After years of elevated inflation and currency volatility, inflation has declined significantly from double digits to more moderate levels, and foreign exchange reserves have remained robust. Recent data shows the cedi trading relatively stably at the end of February, with an average selling rate of around GH¢11.65 at forex bureaus and GH¢10.69 on the interbank market.
In addition, separate analysis from Databank Research indicates Ghana’s current account could record an average surplus of around 3 per cent of GDP in 2026, supported by improving trade balances and expanding access to export markets.
Implications for Businesses and Consumers
A projected depreciation of the cedi, even if moderate, could have implications for businesses that depend on imported inputs, as well as consumers facing foreign currency-denominated costs. However, policymakers and analysts have emphasized that sound fiscal discipline, strong reserve buffers, and external financial support such as ongoing engagements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank could help cushion potential downside risks.
Databank’s outlook follows months of relative stability for the cedi, which saw mixed short-term movements as first-quarter foreign exchange demand rose earlier this year.
As Ghana progresses through 2026, currency watchers will be closely monitoring both domestic policy responses and global economic developments to gauge whether the forecast depreciation materializes.